The business plan vs what happened (EN)

4:04 · English · Asset Management

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About this video

Ellie holds an approved hotel repositioning plan against every document that arrived afterwards, opens the source for each figure and re-runs the returns.

Full description

Carradale's Shirotae Asakusa, a 168-key Tokyo hotel bought in March 2025, is being repositioned on a business plan the investment committee approved once. Ellie reads the quantity surveyor's cost reports, the programme, the operator's forecasts (in Japanese) and the hotel management agreement against that plan. The works are ¥206m over budget, stabilisation has slipped, and the rate premium the plan assumed is not supported by the comparable set. Re-running the returns takes the levered I.R.R. from 17.4% to about 8.5% and the multiple to 1.39x, below the committee's hurdle. Ellie moves the asset to off track, publishes a Brief with every figure linked to its source, and drafts the asset manager's note for the Q3 investor update on the house template. Fictional data.

Key points

  • Checks an approved business plan against every document that arrived afterwards
  • ¥206m cost overrun traced to the quantity surveyor's report
  • Returns re-run: levered IRR from 17.4% to about 8.5%, below the IC hurdle
  • Reads the operator's Japanese forecasts alongside the English plan
  • A cited Brief and an investor-update note on the house template
Video details
Roles
Asset Manager, Portfolio Manager, Investor / LP
Processes
Asset Management, Valuation, Portfolio Analytics
Geographies
APAC
Markets
Japan
Tags
author-demo, apac-pe, business plan, hotel, Japan, carradale